Dengue transmission risk in a changing climate: Bangladesh could experience a longer dengue fever season in the future
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报告开始:2021年06月14日 11:00(Australia/Brisbane)

报告时间:20min

所在会场:[ES] E-poster [SE] E-Poster

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摘要
Our changing climate is already affecting the transmission of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. This issue presents a significant public health concern for some nations, such as Bangladesh, which already experience regular seasonal outbreaks of dengue fever under present day conditions. To provide guidance for proactive public health planning to potentially mitigate future infections, we explore the impact of climate change on dengue infections by calculating the change in vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti mosquito at a seasonal level for all regions in Bangladesh under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations for the period 1950-2099. For each of the four climate models used, and for both scenarios, our analysis reveals that the annual vectorial capacity remains at a level that would enable potential dengue epidemic transmission in all regions during the time period examined. We found a slight decline in vectorial capacity in half of the regions examined during the last two decades of 21st Century for the lower-concentration scenario, with a pronounced decline in vectorial capacity in all geographic regions beginning in 2060 for the higher-concentration scenario. The likely reason is that in many regions greenhouse warming is leading to temperatures beyond the optimum for mosquito breeding. However, seasonal differences in vectorial capacity dissipate as the climate warms, to the point that there is almost no observable seasonality for the higher-concentration scenario during the last two decades of the century. This suggests the potential for the dengue season to extend all year, with outbreaks occurring at any time. These findings suggest that disease surveillance and control activities would need to be geographically and temporally adapted to mitigate dengue epidemic risk.
关键词
vectorial capacity,global climate model,outbreak risk,mosquito-borne disease
报告人
Kishor Kumar Paul
PhD student Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney

稿件作者
Kishor Kumar Paul Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney
Ian Macadam ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney;Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney
Donna L Green ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney;Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney
David G Regan Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney
Richard T Gray Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    06月14日

    2021

    06月15日

    2021

  • 06月15日 2021

    报告提交截止日期

  • 06月15日 2021

    注册截止日期

主办单位
Queensland University of Technology, Australia (QUT)
承办单位
Xi'an Jiaotong University
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