34 / 2015-11-25 22:38:24

Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis

8473,8474,8475,urban development,land use,1127

The problem of global warming worsens continuously while carbon emission in China is ranked the highest in the world and is still increasing rapidly. This paper studied the causal relationship between the land urbanization quality and carbon emissions using panel from 30 provinces in China during 2004-2013. Firstly, the level of urbanization quality is investigated employing an evaluation system. Further, Pedroni(2001) conintergration method and panel-based VECM methodology are employed to test the existence of causal relationship between land urbanization quality and carbon emissions. Finally, we test whether there is a strong or weak relationship between these variables by using panel fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method. The empirical results show that (1) there exist bidirectional long-run causality between land urbanization quality and carbon emissions in the national scale, which implies that carbon emissions and land urbanization quality are jointly determined and affect each other simultaneously;(2) land urbanization quality has negative effects on carbon emissions in all areas, with its effects largest in the Central region, followed by the Eastern, and the Western ranked at last;(3) short-run causality found in all regions, in addition to Eastern China;(4)Central region have the highest potential of energy conservation. This study would thus provide policymakers with insights about the link between land use development and energy consumption. Further, we propose that emphasis should be given to promote the degree of land urbanization quality and energy conservation during the process of New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020).Specifically, to actively adjust the industrial structure, innovation in science and technology, and separate policy focus can contribute to energy conservation and urban land use.