Synoptic Flow Patterns and Key Factors Controlling Rapid Intensification Onset of Tropical Cyclones along the China Coast
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更新:2026-08-02 18:00:08 浏览:0次
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摘要
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) near the China coast poses heightened risk because short lead times limit preparedness. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation, and TC best-track data, we apply an obliquely rotated T-mode principal component analysis to classify synoptic environments for RI events and diagnose controlling factors with composites and a Box Difference Index. Four synoptic flow patterns emerge: (1) MSS: combined monsoon trough, subtropical high, and South Asian high; (2) MS: monsoon trough interacting with the subtropical high; (3) SH: subtropical-high-dominated; and (4) MW: monsoon trough with a southward-penetrating midlatitude westerly trough. Across regimes, RI is preceded by radius-of-maximum-wind contraction, increased TC fullness, and more axisymmetric inner-core precipitation. Further analyses show that MSS/MS feature reduced vertical wind shear and stronger low-level vorticity with enhanced precipitation; SH shows the weakest shear and strongest upper-level divergence as the ridge extends westward; MW favors already compact, intense storms that can withstand shear asymmetry tied to the midlatitude westerly trough. These results clarify how large-scale flow modulates RI onset near the China coast and suggest that combining synoptic-pattern recognition with environmental predictors can improve RI guidance for coastal warnings.
关键词
Rapid Intensification, Synoptic Patterns, China coast, Monsoon Trough, Vortex Axisymmetrization
稿件作者
占瑞芬
复旦大学
李晓萌
中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所
王玉清
夏威夷大学
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