Synoptic Flow Patterns and Key Factors Controlling Rapid Intensification Onset of Tropical Cyclones along the China Coast
编号:239 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-02 18:00:08 浏览:0次 口头报告

报告开始:暂无开始时间(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:暂无持续时间

所在会场:[暂无会议] [暂无会议段]

暂无文件

摘要
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) near the China coast poses heightened risk because short lead times limit preparedness. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation, and TC best-track data, we apply an obliquely rotated T-mode principal component analysis to classify synoptic environments for RI events and diagnose controlling factors with composites and a Box Difference Index. Four synoptic flow patterns emerge: (1) MSS: combined monsoon trough, subtropical high, and South Asian high; (2) MS: monsoon trough interacting with the subtropical high; (3) SH: subtropical-high-dominated; and (4) MW: monsoon trough with a southward-penetrating midlatitude westerly trough. Across regimes, RI is preceded by radius-of-maximum-wind contraction, increased TC fullness, and more axisymmetric inner-core precipitation. Further analyses show that MSS/MS feature reduced vertical wind shear and stronger low-level vorticity with enhanced precipitation; SH shows the weakest shear and strongest upper-level divergence as the ridge extends westward; MW favors already compact, intense storms that can withstand shear asymmetry tied to the midlatitude westerly trough. These results clarify how large-scale flow modulates RI onset near the China coast and suggest that combining synoptic-pattern recognition with environmental predictors can improve RI guidance for coastal warnings.
关键词
Rapid Intensification, Synoptic Patterns, China coast, Monsoon Trough, Vortex Axisymmetrization
报告人
占瑞芬
教授 复旦大学

稿件作者
占瑞芬 复旦大学
李晓萌 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所
王玉清 夏威夷大学
发表评论
验证码 看不清楚,更换一张
全部评论
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    08月12日

    2026

    08月15日

    2026

  • 08月05日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 08月12日 2026

    注册截止日期

主办单位
成都信息工程大学
承办单位
成都信息工程大学
历届会议
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询