Deep learning model for enhancing decadal prediction of Eurasian surface air temperature
编号:890 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 20:26:34 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要
Decadal climate prediction offers critical scientific guidance for policymakers and supports socioeconomic sustainability. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art dynamical models remain limited in predicting the intricate multidecadal variability in Eurasian surface air temperature(SAT) at mid-to-high latitudes several years in advance. Here, we present a hybrid deep learning model–Gated Recurrent Unit augmented with batch normalization and attention mechanism (GRUBA)–that significantly enhances decadal prediction skill through advanced postprocessing of multi-model ensemble outputs. By incorporating K-means temporal clustering, GRUBA sequentially refines each SAT cluster accordingto its distinct decadal variability. During the test period of 2004–2021, the averaged anomaly correlation coefficient skill improves from –0.23 to 0.83, and the mean square skill score from –0.37 to 0.68 compared to the unweighted multi-model ensemble mean. This substantial improvement arises in part from the attention mechanism, which effectively reduces model spread. Furthermore, SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) analysis reveals that GRUBA assigns higher weights to better performing ensemble members.
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报告人
Yuhao Chen
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

稿件作者
Yuhao Chen Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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