The understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the decadal variability of the tropical cyclone remains insufficient, and its decadal prediction is full of challenge. This study shows that leading 3-year North Atlantic Ocean heat content (OHC_NA) can explain 63.2% of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) in western North Pacific (WNP) variance during the period of 1980–2007. When OHC_NA decreases, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strengthens, leading to a maximum interhemispheric thermal contrast three years later. The resulting thermal contrast drives cross-equatorial overturning circulation, characterized by low-level northerlies and compensating upper-level southerlies, thereby reducing vertical wind shear over the WNP and creating favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation. A physical statistical decadal prediction model for TCGF based on this OHC_NA displays robust predictive skill in independent hindcast period of 2008–2021, with correlation skill of 0.86 and mean squared skill score of 0.72. Real time prediction for 2022-2024 suggests a trend of TCGF shifting toward a negative phase. This study provides a new clue for the decadal prediction of tropical cyclone.

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