Decadal Modulation of North Pacific Heat Storage: Regional Patterns and Emerging Signals
编号:875 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 20:22:22 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要

Anthropogenic heat storage in the ocean exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with important implications for regional climate and societal vulnerability. State-of-the-art climate models generally project a sustained accumulation of heat in the mid‑latitude North Pacific, contrasted by relatively weak storage in the tropical basin. However, observational estimates over the past several decades reveal a more intricate pattern, characterized by limited net warming in the central and eastern mid‑latitudes and a conspicuous warming tendency in the northwestern tropical Pacific. Using a combination of observational products, dedicated ocean model sensitivity experiments, and multi‑model climate simulations, we investigate the relative roles of externally forced trends and internal low‑frequency variability in shaping the historical and future heat storage evolution. Our analyses suggest that natural decadal‐to‐multidecadal variations in the large‑scale wind field have contributed substantially to the regional distribution of heat content changes over recent decades, leading to deviations from the canonical model‑projected pattern. The associated circulation adjustments appear to involve basin‑scale dynamical reorganizations, which modulate the timing and pattern of the forced signal. As a consequence, the unambiguous emergence of anthropogenic warming in the interior North Pacific is likely to be delayed until the latter part of this century. Nevertheless, some evidence points to an earlier detectable anthropogenic signature in the marginal seas fringing the North Pacific basin, where enhanced warming and attendant extremes (e.g., marine heatwaves) are already becoming apparent.

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报告人
Jing Duan
Institute of Oceanology

稿件作者
Jing Duan Institute of Oceanology
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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