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Anthropogenic heat storage in the ocean exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with important implications for regional climate and societal vulnerability. State-of-the-art climate models generally project a sustained accumulation of heat in the mid‑latitude North Pacific, contrasted by relatively weak storage in the tropical basin. However, observational estimates over the past several decades reveal a more intricate pattern, characterized by limited net warming in the central and eastern mid‑latitudes and a conspicuous warming tendency in the northwestern tropical Pacific. Using a combination of observational products, dedicated ocean model sensitivity experiments, and multi‑model climate simulations, we investigate the relative roles of externally forced trends and internal low‑frequency variability in shaping the historical and future heat storage evolution. Our analyses suggest that natural decadal‐to‐multidecadal variations in the large‑scale wind field have contributed substantially to the regional distribution of heat content changes over recent decades, leading to deviations from the canonical model‑projected pattern. The associated circulation adjustments appear to involve basin‑scale dynamical reorganizations, which modulate the timing and pattern of the forced signal. As a consequence, the unambiguous emergence of anthropogenic warming in the interior North Pacific is likely to be delayed until the latter part of this century. Nevertheless, some evidence points to an earlier detectable anthropogenic signature in the marginal seas fringing the North Pacific basin, where enhanced warming and attendant extremes (e.g., marine heatwaves) are already becoming apparent.
01月12日
2027
01月15日
2027
初稿截稿日期
注册截止日期
2024年12月11日 中国
第七届厦门海洋环境开放科学大会(XMAS 2025)2023年01月09日 中国 Xiamen
第六届厦门海洋环境科学开放大会
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