Mangroves represent distinctive coastal ecosystems that support diverse ecological functions, yet their resilience to future extreme climate events remains uncertain. Here, we investigated the resilience of mangroves in East Asia by employing the remote-sensing derived normalized difference vegetation index as a proxy for canopy greenness. A bootstrapping-based statistical framework was applied to identify vegetation responses associated with extreme climate events and quantify lagged climatic effects from 2001 to 2022. We found that climatic extremes, specifically anomalously low temperature and solar radiation, were associated with reduced mangrove NDVI. Furthermore, East Asian mangrove growth was strongly influenced by preceding winter temperature and seasonal solar radiation, with distinct lagged responses on seasonal time scales across latitudinal zones. These findings were extrapolated to future projections by the Earth system modelling to explore existing and potential mangrove habitats in East Asia, particularly China, South Korea and Japan. While shifts in wintertime isotherms indicate northward expansion of mangroves under global warming, low solar radiation events associated with aerosol emissions under the high-emission SSP3-7.0 scenario could remain as a limiting factor for their growth. This study highlights that both temperature-driven opportunities and solar radiation constraints should be integrated into practical planning for future conservation, restoration, and migration as nature-based climate solutions.

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