Forecasting of internal wave amplitude based on CEEMDAN and machine learning: Andaman Sea case study
编号:496 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 16:52:28 浏览:0次 张贴报告

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摘要
Oceanic internal waves (IWs) significantly impact marine engineering safety and submarine navigation stability, with amplitude serving as a core parameter characterizing their intensity. However, directly achieving rapid time-series forecasting of IW amplitudes remains a significant challenge, particularly for large-amplitude IWs. To date, the application of in-situ data for such forecasting tasks has not been reported. This study proposes a forecasting framework that integrates IW generation mechanisms with machine learning. We develop a CEEMDAN-based dual-track model featuring an innovative decomposition-frequency division predictionreconstruction strategy. Multiple algorithms are benchmarked separately for trend and high-frequency components to identify optimal configurations. Using Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and tidal range data as fundamental features, the model is trained to predict the IW amplitude at the mooring location. We achieve rapid forecasting of semidiurnal IW amplitudes. The test results show excellent performance. On the test set, the RMSE is 1.19 m, and the MAE is 0.93 m. The R2 exceeds 0.98. Extreme amplitude events (>40 m) further validate model reliability. This study successfully forecasts IW amplitude. It establishes a basic framework for future predictions that combine physical mechanisms with machine learning.
 
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报告人
Peichao Zhang
First institute of Oceanography

稿件作者
Peichao Zhang First institute of Oceanography
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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