An eastward-propagating coupled mode amplifying the early growth of extreme El Niño events
编号:425 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 16:23:39 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要
Extreme El Niño events are among the most consequential climate phenomena, yet their early prediction remains challenging. Here, by analyzing the 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 events together with a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we identify a slow, eastward-propagating coupled mode in the western-central equatorial Pacific that plays a critical role in the onset of such events. This mode features warm sea surface temperature anomalies coupled with sustained westerly wind anomalies during boreal winter-spring. These westerly wind anomalies drive the equatorward transport of warm water, rapidly increasing equatorial ocean heat content and priming extreme El Niño growth in the following summer and fall. This mode is also observed in early 2026, preconditioning the development of this on-going El Niño event. Ensemble hindcasts further reveal that East Asian cold surges and the North Pacific Oscillation can stochastically excite this equatorial mode, enabling skillful forecasts of extreme events as early as February and helping to overcome the spring predictability barrier. 
 
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报告人
Yu Liang
Assistant Professor The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

稿件作者
Yu Liang The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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