This study projects future sea-level change over the continental shelf of the China Seas under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), using the CMIP6 multi-model mean from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Contributions from ice mass loss (glaciers and ice sheets), land water storage, ocean processes (sterodynamic sea level change), and vertical land movement are quantified. Sea level over the shelf is projected to rise continuously until 2300 under all scenarios, with acceleration after 2080 under SSP5-8.5. The shelf sea level rise is slightly above the global mean under low-emission scenarios and over near-term periods，while under higher emissions, particularly after the mid-21st century, it systematically exceeds the global mean, and the gap widens over time. By 2100, relative to 1995–2014, the shelf-averaged rise reaches 0.45 m (0.14–0.79 m, 17th–83rd percentile), 0.57 m (0.25–0.94 m), and 0.81 m (0.46–1.21 m) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with medium confidence. By 2300, the rise exceeds 1.5 m for all scenarios and surpasses 5.5 m under SSP5-8.5, albeit with low confidence. In terms of attribution, the sterodynamic component dominates the budget before 2150, contributing about 40 % of the relative sea level rise across scenarios with medium confidence. By 2300, the Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes the primary contributor, accounting for >30 % of the total with low confidence. Overall, the barystatic-GRD component (contributions from ice sheets, glaciers, and land water storage) outweighs the sterodynamic effect in the shelf seas, maintaining a roughly 2: 1 ratio under SSP2-4.5 by 2100, comparable to the global-mean partition. The manometric component, dominated by ocean circulation-induced mass redistribution, accounts for 92% (SSP1-2.6) and 88% (SSP5-8.5) of the shelf-averaged rise by 2100, with the remainder attributed to steric change. Finally, higher-resolution modelling reveals finer coastal structures, underscoring the need for dynamical downscaling in this sterodynamic-dominated region.
 

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