Coastal flooding has become an increasingly critical global hazard as accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) driven by anthropogenic climate change amplifies the impacts of extreme storm surges, particularly in low-lying reclaimed coastal cities such as Macau. This study develops an integrated end-to-end framework for assessing future storm surge risk under SLR by coupling hazard simulation, inundation dynamics, and exposure assessment. A GPU-accelerated coastal flood model is employed to simulate high-resolution storm surge inundation and is validated against observations from Typhoons Hato (2017) and Mangkhut (2018). High-resolution population exposure maps are generated by downscaling population data onto the computational mesh using building distribution information. The results demonstrate that nonlinear tide–surge interactions are substantially amplified within Macau's narrow semi-enclosed channels and significantly prolong high-water duration during Typhoon Mangkhut.  Future projections further indicate that Macau exhibits exceptional sensitivity to sea-level rise. Under the CMIP6 SSP5–8.5 scenario,  inundation hazards increase dramatically after 2100, with surge heights approaching twice those under present-day conditions in low-lying reclaimed coastal areas.

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