Impacts of MJO and mesoscale eddies on tropical marine heatwaves and their forecast
编号:210 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 14:54:17 浏览:0次 特邀报告

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摘要
Tropical oceans vitally regulate the global climate and nurture diverse marine ecosystems. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) – warm extremes in ocean temperatures – have been increasingly detected worldwide over recent decades, raising concerns about their potential intensification in tropical oceans with far-reaching consequences. Yet, changes in tropical MHWs remain highly uncertain across climate models. Our analysis of satellite observational data reveals a significant decline in the mean intensity of surface MHWs by 3-11% across tropical oceans since the 1980s. Utilizing ocean reanalysis data and climate model simulations with ~0.1° resolution, we demonstrate that this decline in tropical MHW intensity results primarily from decreased mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) variability (< ~1000 km), except in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominated eastern Pacific region. Heat budget analysis shows that advection by mesoscale eddies is a key driver of tropical MHWs. However, this vital process has weakened owing to declining SST gradients and reduced mesoscale eddy activity in tropical oceans. Our study highlights the pivotal role of mesoscale eddies in regulating MHW dynamics in a warming climate. This finding points to the promising potential for improved prediction of future changes in MHWs and their impacts on climate and biodiversity with refined model resolutions. 
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报告人
Yuanlong Li
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

稿件作者
Yuanlong Li Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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