Low Cross-product Agreement in Global Coastal Marine Heatwaves (1982–2023) and Implications for Trend Attribution
编号:200 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 14:51:06 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要
Coastal marine heatwaves (MHWs) derived from satellite and blended sea surface temperature (SST) products often disagree, but the magnitude and drivers of this uncertainty remain poorly quantified. Using four daily SST products from 1982 to 2023, we quantify agreement at 9,946 global coastal points using two inter-product intersection-over-union metrics, a daily-scale co-identification rate (γ ) and an event-scale rate (γ ) based on overlapping event intervals. We find low global agreement, with daily- and event-scale rates averaging 12.34 ± 7.84% and 16.33 ± 8.35%, respectively, and interquartile ranges of 6.34%–17.19% and 10.17%–21.55%. Both γ  and γ  increase systematically with event duration and annual cumulative intensity. MHW trends are generally consistent across products, whereas trend attribution ratios show substantial inter-product divergence. These results indicate comparatively consistent estimates of long-term change but highlight the need to explicitly report multi-product uncertainty in coastal attribution.
 
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报告人
Wenjin Sun
Assoc. Prof. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

稿件作者
Wenjin Sun Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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