The Month-to-Year Precursory and Synchronous Inherent Connections Between Global Oceanic Modes and Extreme Precipitation Over China
编号:1626 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-09-02 16:54:49 浏览:0次 口头报告

报告开始:暂无开始时间(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:暂无持续时间

所在会场:[暂无会议] [暂无会议段]

暂无文件

摘要
The multiscale variability in summer extreme persistent precipitation (SEPP) in China from 1961 to 2020 was investigated via three extreme precipitation indices: consecutive wet days (CWDs), total precipitation amount (TPA), and daily precipitation intensity (DPI). The relationships between precursory and concurrent global oceanic modes and SEPP were identified via a generalized linear model (GLM). The influence of oceanic modes on the SEPP was finally investigated via numerical simulations. The results revealed that the climatological SEPP (>14 days) mainly appears across Tibetan Plateau, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and South China coast. The first EOF mode for all three indices showed strong signals over the Yangtze River. Further analysis via the GLM suggested that the positive phases of the TNA in autumn, ENSO in winter, the IOB in spring, and the WNP in summer emerged as the most effective precursory factors of SEPP, which could serve as preceding signals for future predictions, contributing 30.2%, 36.4%, 38.0%, and 55.6%, respectively, to the GLM. Sensitive experiments revealed that SST forcing in all four seasons contributes to SEPP over China, whereas the winter and summer SST warming over the Pacific and Indian Ocean (IO) contributes the most. The hydrological cycle diagnostic suggested that water vapor advection predominantly originates from the western Pacific and IO in summer, driven by the strengthened subtropical high and Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The enhanced vertical water vapor transport is attributed to stronger upward motion across all four seasons. These findings are helpful for better understanding SEPP variabilities and their prediction under SST warming.
关键词
暂无
报告人
Xiaoyu Liu
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

稿件作者
Xiaoyu Liu Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences
发表评论
验证码 看不清楚,更换一张
全部评论
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
联系方式
历届会议
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询