Tipping points and abrupt changes In the Marine Ecosystem (TIME) is a European Space Agency (ESA) funded project that focuses on eight tipping elements in the marine ecosystem: phytoplankton and primary production; phenology; plankton size structure; Noctiluca; coccolithophores; Antarctic phytoplankton; North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; and coral reefs. Region of interest for each of the tipping elements is selected according to prior, initial evidence of change. The work will exploit the almost three-decade-long global time series of satellite-based products generated through the Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) of ESA, and other relevant Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), such as Sea Surface Temperature. The work has a focus on satellite-derived data, but it will also make use of complementary in situ data. Theoretical models are also being used in this project, to investigate feedbacks, resilience, and fragility in the marine ecosystem. Long time series data are being analysed using multiple statistical tools to identify abrupt changes and approaching tipping points. Where changes are identified, the potential drivers of change will be investigated. The role of noise (variability) in the ecosystem in determining the threshold where rapid changes might occur, will be investigated. The challenges to be addressed include missing data in the satellite coverage, which is particularly acute in high latitudes.

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