The evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude asymmetry since the Last Glacial Maximum
编号:1510 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-09-01 01:09:12 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude asymmetry—the preferential amplification of El Niño relative to La Niña—is a defining expression of tropical climate nonlinearity and a key determinant of global hydroclimate extremes. Yet its long-term evolution and stability under radically different climate states remain poorly constrained. Here we reconstruct ENSO amplitude asymmetry since the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) using a synthesis of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST), SST anomaly (SSTA) and thermocline temperature skewness derived from fossil corals, mollusk shells and individual foraminifera, combined with transient coupled climate simulations. We show that ENSO skewness increased progressively through the Holocene, driven primarily by amplification of El Niño relative to La Niña, consistent with orbitally forced shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. In contrast, millennial-scale perturbations during Heinrich Stadial 1, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas produced abrupt, non-monotonic skewness changes associated with reorganisations of ENSO spatial structure linked to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability. By establishing SST skewness as a robust paleoclimate diagnostic of ENSO nonlinearity, our findings provide a critical long-term perspective on its stability, revealing its sensitivity to mean-state changes and offering a framework to reduce uncertainty in future ENSO projections.

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报告人
Zhengyao Lu
Xiamen University

稿件作者
Zhengyao Lu Xiamen University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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