Spatiotemporal Storm Surge Forecasting with a Deep Learning Model Using an Augmented Typhoon Track Dataset and Meteorological Updates
编号:1257 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 23:25:55 浏览:0次 口头报告

报告开始:暂无开始时间(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:暂无持续时间

所在会场:[暂无会议] [暂无会议段]

暂无文件

摘要
Storm surges pose significant threats to coastal populations and livelihoods, and rapid, accurate spatiotemporal forecasting is crucial for mitigating their impacts. In recent years, deep learning models have shown strong forecasting potential, offering new solutions for storm surge prediction. In this study, we developed a storm surge prediction model based on the Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator. The model effectively captures spatiotemporal relationships between meteorological forcing and storm surge dynamics at a spatial resolution of 0.05°. Unlike models that rely solely on historical data, our approach incorporates continuously updated typhoon information as input, allowing it to respond dynamically to changes in storm track and intensity. When tested on Tropical Storm Pulasan (2024) and Typhoon In-Fa (2021), the model achieved 48-hour mean spatial root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 0.28 m and 0.27 m, respectively, with correlation coefficients (CORRs) exceeding 0.69 and 0.85 relative to numerical simulations used as the training reference. In addition, validation against observations from multiple tide gauges yielded station-averaged RMSEs of 0.35 m and 0.34 m, CORRs of 0.74 and 0.78, and peak surge errors of 0.18 m and 0.28 m, respectively. These results demonstrate the model's strong potential for operational storm surge forecasting and emergency management.
关键词
暂无
报告人
Zhou Zaiyang
Associate Professor East China Normal University

稿件作者
Zhou Zaiyang East China Normal University
发表评论
验证码 看不清楚,更换一张
全部评论
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
联系方式
历届会议
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询