Sustained Weakening in the Atlantic NiñoNiña variability post 2100
编号:1240 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 23:19:32 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要
The Atlantic Niño/Niña, akin to the Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, exerting profound impacts on the global climate. Previous studies show reversed changes in ENSO and IOD variabil ity before and after 2100. However, the projected evolution of the Atlantic Niño/Niña beyond 2100 remains unknown. Here, we find that the Atlantic Niño/Niña variability displays a sustained weak ening toward the 23rd century under high- and low- emission scenarios. On the one hand, atmo spheric stratification is stabilized in the equatorial Atlantic, reducing the sensitivity of zonal wind to the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. On the other hand, weakened equat orial upwelling decreases SST sensitivity to thermocline anomalies. These changes suppress the Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Atlantic, leading to a sustained weakening of Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under persistent greenhouse warming, in sharp contrast to ENSO and the IOD. Such weakening in variability may further influence the predictability and global impacts of the Atlantic Niño/Niña, with potentially far-reaching ramifications.
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报告人
Xinyue Mei
student Beijing Normal University

稿件作者
Xinyue Mei Beijing Normal University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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