Structural divergence of coastal and open-ocean interannual carbon variability under climate warming
编号:1186 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 23:00:58 浏览:0次 张贴报告

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摘要

A central challenge in Earth system science is determining whether anthropogenic warming simply amplifies existing variability or fundamentally reorganizes how different components of the Earth system regulate fluctuations. The ocean has absorbed increasing amounts of anthropogenic CO2, leading to rising surface-ocean pCO2 and potentially altering its temporal variability. While open-ocean carbon variability has received increasing attention, temporal changes in coastal-ocean pCO2 variability remain poorly constrained, limiting assessments of coastal carbon uptake, acidification risk, and future biogeochemical extremes.

Here we investigate whether coastal and open-ocean carbon variability respond coherently or diverge under sustained anthropogenic forcing. Using nine independent observation-based pCO2 products and 19 CMIP6 Earth system models, we identify a pronounced amplification of interannual pCO2 variability in coastal regions relative to the open ocean. This amplification is pervasive across global continental margins and strengthens over time under continued forcing. Interannual variability in coastal regions not only exceeds offshore variability but also amplifies nearly twice as fast, resulting in a progressive widening of the coastal–open-ocean variance gap.

This divergence reflects a fundamental contrast in the mechanisms regulating carbon variability. Enhanced variability in pCO2-relevant dissolved tracers strengthens non-thermal control of pCO2 variability in coastal waters, whereas weaker tracer variability and stronger thermal–nonthermal compensation dampen variability growth offshore. Consequently, anthropogenic warming is not merely amplifying ocean carbon variability, but is progressively reorganizing the regulatory architecture governing variability across oceanic regimes.

Importantly, this structural divergence is not confined to pCO2. Consistent and statistically robust amplification patterns are detected in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), alkalinity, and salinity, indicating that warming is reshaping the variability of multiple coupled tracers rather than altering a single carbon-cycle metric. Although amplification magnitudes differ among tracers, the direction and coastal–open-ocean contrast remain consistent across datasets and models.

Together, these findings reveal that anthropogenic forcing is reshaping the spatial architecture of ocean carbon variability, generating increasing heterogeneity between continental margins and the open ocean. Because coastal systems play a disproportionate role in air–sea CO2 exchange and biogeochemical exposure, this divergence has important implications for carbon-cycle predictability, acidification risk, and future biogeochemical extremes.

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报告人
Xueying Zhang
PhD Student Shanghai Jiao Tong University

稿件作者
Xueying Zhang Shanghai Jiao Tong University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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