Sea surface temperature directly beneath tropical cyclones is crucial for their intensification. In the long term, global warming heats the surface oceans, intensifying tropical cyclones, whereas concurrently with a cyclone, inner-core surface cooling is induced by the cyclone itself curtailing its intensification. However, the magnitude of cyclone-induced cooling, or the trend in storm-local sea surface temperature, remains uncertain. Here we provide a quantification using global surface drifter data from 1992 to 2021. We find that storm-local sea surface temperatures are rising at 0.29 ± 0.07 °C per decade—about twice the average rate in tropical cyclone-active regions despite enhanced cyclone-induced cooling; furthermore, the magnitude of cyclone-induced inner-core cooling is far smaller than previous estimates. The inner-core cooling measured by drifters is −0.68 ± 0.04 °C, substantially less than microwave satellite estimates ( −1 .05 ± 0.06 °C). State-of-the-art climate models tend to overestimate inner-core cooling while underestimating storm intensity. These findings offer observational benchmarks for models and suggest that current projections may underestimate the strength, frequency and impacts of major tropical cyclones.

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