Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Size
编号:1050 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 21:36:29 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要
Poleward migration of tropical cyclone (TC) activities may increase TC risks for higher-latitude coastal regions. Here we show that the mean latitude of lifetime maximum size (LMS) of TCs has increased significantly at a rate of 0.92° per decade over the globe, approximately 70% faster than the poleward migration rate of lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). The accelerated LMS migration is associated mostly with the increased frequency and duration of post-LMI expansion. TCs undergoing post-LMI expansion tend to occur in environments characterized by strong vertical wind shear, which generally suppresses TC intensification but permits size expansion. As LMI shifts poleward into higher-latitude regions with enhanced climatological wind shear, the likelihood of post-LMI expansion increases, contributing to a growing latitudinal separation between LMS and LMI. These results demonstrate that TC size and intensity exhibit distinct responses to the poleward migration of TC activity, with important implications for assessing future TC risks at higher latitudes.
 
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报告人
Jiacheng Hong
Doctor Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources

稿件作者
Jiacheng Hong Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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