Tropical cyclones intensified by weak pre-storm submesoscale sea surface temperature gradients
编号:1041 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 21:33:51 浏览:0次 口头报告

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摘要

Warm ocean provides essential energy for tropical cyclones (TCs). It is well recognized that the upper-ocean vertical temperature gradients substantially influence TC-self-induced sea surface cooling, thereby moderating TC intensification. Recent high-resolution satellite imagery reveals ubiquitous horizontal submesoscale sea surface temperature gradients (SSTGs) in TC-active regions, but whether and how they might affect TCs remains unknown. Here, we show that weak pre-storm SSTGs substantially suppress TC-induced cooling, whereas strong SSTGs enhance cooling under down-front winds. Down-front winds blow along the front with warm water on the right-hand side, and the associated current in the upper ocean pushing the cold, heavy water across the front to the warm side through Ekman transport under the influence of Earth's rotation. Aggregated globally, weak SSTGs favor TC intensification and lead to approximately 40% higher TC intensity than that over strong SSTGs. Further, approximately 70% of rapidly-intensifying intense TCs occur over weak SSTGs and approximately 60% of intense landfalling TCs experience below-average SSTGs in the days preceding landfall. Consequently, a decreasing trend of approximately 10% per decade in SSTGs, across all TC-active regions observed since 1993, should be conducive to a trend of increased TC intensity. Thus, weak pre-storm SSTG can be an early-warning for intense TCs with destructive impacts, and resolving submesoscale SSTGs is essential in operational prediction systems and in climate models used for TC projection.

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报告人
Hanrui Liu
Ocean University of China

稿件作者
Hanrui Liu Ocean University of China
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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