Strong Tropical Cyclones Intensify More Gradually through Interaction with Ocean Subsurface
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更新:2026-08-31 21:33:15 浏览:0次
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摘要
Understanding changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity long-term trends is critical for enhancing societal resilience. Given their disproportionate impacts, shifts in strong TCs, which are defined here as Category 4 and above, are of particular concern. We examined long-term trends in the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of strong global TCs and found that their increasing trend is only 43% of the average across all TCs. This discrepancy points to a wind-dependent negative feedback mechanism that restricts the intensification of strong TCs. Stronger winds induce stronger mixing and a deeper mixed layer depth (MLD), entraining cold subsurface waters that constrain TC intensification. Our findings highlight the need to improve understanding of intense TC feedback mechanisms to enhance future intensity projections, which is critical for mitigating societal and environmental impacts.
稿件作者
Lei Zhou
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
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