Strong Tropical Cyclones Intensify More Gradually through Interaction with Ocean Subsurface
编号:1039 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-08-31 21:33:15 浏览:0次 特邀报告

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摘要
Understanding changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity long-term trends is critical for enhancing societal resilience. Given their disproportionate impacts, shifts in strong TCs, which are defined here as Category 4 and above, are of particular concern. We examined long-term trends in the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of strong global TCs and found that their increasing trend is only 43% of the average across all TCs. This discrepancy points to a wind-dependent negative feedback mechanism that restricts the intensification of strong TCs. Stronger winds induce stronger mixing and a deeper mixed layer depth (MLD), entraining cold subsurface waters that constrain TC intensification. Our findings highlight the need to improve understanding of intense TC feedback mechanisms to enhance future intensity projections, which is critical for mitigating societal and environmental impacts.
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报告人
Lei Zhou
Shanghai Jiao Tong University

稿件作者
Lei Zhou Shanghai Jiao Tong University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月12日

    2027

    01月15日

    2027

  • 07月21日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

  • 01月15日 2027

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University (MEL)
Department of Earth Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
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