Combined Effects of Annual Cycle and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific
编号:935 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-04-09 10:44:19 浏览:7次 特邀报告

报告开始:2026年04月26日 14:50(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S1-26] 专题1.26 台风观测、机理与预报 [F6] 专题1.26 台风观测、机理与预报

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摘要
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Western North Pacific (WNP). However, the mechanisms for the TC seasonal changes in ENSO developing phase remain unclear. This study addresses the critical influences of the background sea surface temperature (SST) annual cycle and ENSO related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in regulating TC genesis seasonal changes. The results show that during eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño years, TC genesis increases in the southeastern WNP and decreases in the northwest in summer, while in autumn, TC genesis strengthens in the east and weakens in the west. For central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, basin-wide enhancement occurs in summer, with a southeast–northwest contrast in fall, whereas La Niña developing years exhibit nearly opposite patterns. These variations arise from anomalous convection generated by the combination of warm background SST annual cycle and ENSO SSTA, which modify large-scale conditions for TC genesis. Background SST can also strengthen ENSO evolution via the Bjerknes feedback, amplifying circulation impacts. This work provides a new perspective on the critical role of background SST annual cycle in shaping the ENSO–TC relationship, which is potentially helpful for improving seasonal TC prediction over the WNP.
关键词
ENSO,Tropical cyclone,annual cycle
报告人
GuoYi-Peng
教授 南京大学

稿件作者
GuoYi-Peng 南京大学
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    04月25日

    2026

    04月29日

    2026

  • 04月07日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

主办单位
未来大气科学论坛理事会
承办单位
河海大学海洋学院
南京大学南京赫尔辛基大气与地球系统科学学院
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