Storm-Resolving Earth: How Well Do Global KM-Scale Models Simulate Storms in East Asia’s 2020 Record-breaking Wet Summer
编号:436 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-04-08 15:58:14 浏览:14次 口头报告

报告开始:2026年04月26日 14:15(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:12min

所在会场:[S1-23] 专题1.23 对流多尺度相互作用的数值模拟与基础理论 [F7] 专题1.23 对流多尺度相互作用的数值模拟与基础理论

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摘要
High-performance computing now enables a new generation of global kilometer-scale models. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Global Hackathon 2025 initiative, for the first time, multiple cutting-edge global kilometer-scale models have been run for an entire year. All of them have covered the summer of 2020, when East Asia experienced record-breaking precipitation and catastrophic floods, mainly driven by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using an updated storm-tracking algorithm, this study investigated the performance of six global kilometer-scale models in simulating MCS characteristics during the record-breaking wet summer of 2020 in East Asia. Results revealed that all models generally reproduced MCS characteristics, including MCS size, duration, and key features of convection and precipitation. Models also generally captured finer characteristics such as diurnal variations and the frequency-intensity distribution of hourly precipitation. Among the models, Integrated Forecast System (IFS) performs best in capturing MCS rainfall spatial distribution, Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) excels in simulating MCS size, and Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) most accurately represents the land-sea contrast in MCS precipitation intensity. A common bias across models is the underestimation of rainfall area and overestimation of heavy precipitation intensity, indicating simulated convective cores are stronger than observed. Our results demonstrate that global kilometer‑scale modeling has reached a significant benchmark, yet persistent biases remain in MCS simulation. Continued improvements in these models will not only enhance the reliability of modeling but also to improve disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.
 
关键词
Mesoscale convective systems,Convection-permitting model,Kilometer-scale modeling,Storm-resolving model,East Asia Summer Monsoon,Precipitation
报告人
李普曦
副研究员 中国气象科学研究院

稿件作者
LiPuxi Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences; China Meteorological Administration
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    04月25日

    2026

    04月29日

    2026

  • 04月07日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

主办单位
未来大气科学论坛理事会
承办单位
河海大学海洋学院
南京大学南京赫尔辛基大气与地球系统科学学院
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