Season-dependent modulation of the Pacific Meridional Mode on landfalling tropical cyclones in East Asia
编号:386 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-03-30 09:09:49 浏览:11次 特邀报告

报告开始:2026年04月27日 10:50(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:10min

所在会场:[S1-27] 专题1.27 台风气候变异机理及预测预估 [F23] 专题1.27 台风气候变异机理及预测预估

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摘要
This study finds season-dependent modulation of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) frequency (LTF) in East Asia. The correlations between PMM and LTF are significant in Southeast Asia (SEA) during January–March (JFM) and October–December (OND) as well as in Northeast Asia (NEA) during July–September (JAS), while insignificant in any subregion during April–June (AMJ). Quantitative analyses reveal that the basin-wide TC genesis frequency (BF) effect is the primary contributor to LTF anomalies in SEA during JFM and OND, while a combination of BF and the preferable track effect dominates in NEA during JAS. The seasonality arises from the combined impact of PMM on both TC genesis frequency and steering flow. During the positive PMM phase in JFM and OND, enhanced genesis in the main development region (MDR), coinciding with easterly/southeasterly flow, favors TC landfalls in SEA. During JAS, TC genesis shifts northward within the MDR, and southeasterly steering flow anomalies on the north flank of the PMM-induced anomalous cyclone favor TC landfalls in NEA. The insignificant impact of PMM on TC landfalls during AMJ is mainly due to insignificant impact of PMM on BF. The seasonal variations of atmospheric circulation patterns are driven by the westward extension of the PMM-induced anomalous cyclone associated with the Gill-type Rossby wave response across the seasons. This shift is modulated by the seasonal evolution of the PMM-related sea surface temperature warm anomalies in the eastern North Pacific and cold anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific.
 
关键词
tropical cyclone landfalls,Pacific Meridional Mode,Seasonal variability
报告人
高斯
副教授 中山大学

稿件作者
魏香江 中山大学
高斯 中山大学
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    04月25日

    2026

    04月29日

    2026

  • 04月07日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

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南京大学南京赫尔辛基大气与地球系统科学学院
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