Projected future changes of Ningaloo Niño under global warming
编号:372 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-03-30 07:31:59 浏览:20次 口头报告

报告开始:2026年04月27日 16:12(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:12min

所在会场:[S1-15] 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用 [F44] 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用(4月27日下午)

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摘要
Ningaloo Niño is an important climate mode in the Southeast Indian Ocean with far-reaching impacts on the climate and marine environment, but how Ningaloo Niño will change under global warming remains unclear. This study investigates the response of Ningaloo Niño to global warming using the CESM large ensemble projections and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations. We find that Ningaloo Niño will have a stronger magnitude in the second half of the 21st century under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario, with nearly 60% of models showing a one-month delay in its broadened seasonal peak. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the meridional advective feedback is the dominant driver for the Ningaloo Niño changes, with additional contributions from changes in latent heat flux forcing. The strengthening of the Leeuwin Current during the Ningaloo Niño events, and the decrease in latent heat loss are closely associated with enhanced coastal Bjerknes feedback, with possible contributions from the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Furthermore, given the amplification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the increase of specific humidity saturation under global warming, ENSO-related remote influences on the enhancement of Ningaloo Niño activity need further investigation.
关键词
Ningaloo Niño,global warming,Interannual variability
报告人
wuyue
博后 institute of oceanology;china academy of sciences

稿件作者
wuyue institute of oceanology;china academy of sciences
胡石建 河海大学
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    04月25日

    2026

    04月29日

    2026

  • 04月07日 2026

    初稿截稿日期

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未来大气科学论坛理事会
承办单位
河海大学海洋学院
南京大学南京赫尔辛基大气与地球系统科学学院
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