Extensive mangrove loss and degradation have triggered widespread restoration efforts worldwide. Effective planning requires information on biophysically suitable areas, appropriate species selection, and the associated costs and benefits of restoration. Here we developed a systematic restoration planning framework to identify priority areas for mangrove restoration under three restoration scenarios (i.e. ecologically-oriented scenario, economic-oriented monoculture scenario, and integrated scenario) with seven restoration goals ranging from local government targets to those of the Post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Using Large Xiamen Bay, China, as a case study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of 21 scenarios combinations through spatial-temporal cost-benefit analyses. Restoration costs incorporated opportunity costs of alternative land uses, while benefits were linked to restorable mangrove biodiversity. Our results identified optimal restoration areas and species-specific hotspots under varying objectives. Cost-benefit analyses demonstrated that restoration benefits outweighed costs across all scenarios, even in the least favorable large-scale monoculture case. Integrated scenarios consistently produced the highest net benefits. Moreover, the benefit-cost ratio increased over time but declined with expanding restoration scale. Overall, this study presents a scalable approach for designing cost-effective and biodiversity-enhancing mangrove restoration spatial planning. By integrating opportunity costs and restoration benefits, our framework helps reconcile competing land uses and supports the achievement of the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.
Extensive mangrove loss and degradation have triggered widespread restoration efforts worldwide. Effective planning requires information on biophysically suitable areas, appropriate species selection, and the associated costs and benefits of restoration. Here we developed a systematic restoration planning framework to identify priority areas for mangrove restoration under three restoration scenarios (i.e. ecologically-oriented scenario, economic-oriented monoculture scenario, and integrated scenario) with seven restoration goals ranging from local government targets to those of the Post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Using Large Xiamen Bay, China, as a case study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of 21 scenarios combinations through spatial-temporal cost-benefit analyses. Restoration costs incorporated opportunity costs of alternative land uses, while benefits were linked to restorable mangrove biodiversity. Our results identified optimal restoration areas and species-specific hotspots under varying objectives. Cost-benefit analyses demonstrated that restoration benefits outweighed costs across all scenarios, even in the least favorable large-scale monoculture case. Integrated scenarios consistently produced the highest net benefits. Moreover, the benefit-cost ratio increased over time but declined with expanding restoration scale. Overall, this study presents a scalable approach for designing cost-effective and biodiversity-enhancing mangrove restoration spatial planning. By integrating opportunity costs and restoration benefits, our framework helps reconcile competing land uses and supports the achievement of the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.
Extensive mangrove loss and degradation have triggered widespread restoration efforts worldwide. Effective planning requires information on biophysically suitable areas, appropriate species selection, and the associated costs and benefits of restoration. Here we developed a systematic restoration planning framework to identify priority areas for mangrove restoration under three restoration scenarios (i.e. ecologically-oriented scenario, economic-oriented monoculture scenario, and integrated scenario) with seven restoration goals ranging from local government targets to those of the Post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Using Large Xiamen Bay, China, as a case study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of 21 scenarios combinations through spatial-temporal cost-benefit analyses. Restoration costs incorporated opportunity costs of alternative land uses, while benefits were linked to restorable mangrove biodiversity. Our results identified optimal restoration areas and species-specific hotspots under varying objectives. Cost-benefit analyses demonstrated that restoration benefits outweighed costs across all scenarios, even in the least favorable large-scale monoculture case. Integrated scenarios consistently produced the highest net benefits. Moreover, the benefit-cost ratio increased over time but declined with expanding restoration scale. Overall, this study presents a scalable approach for designing cost-effective and biodiversity-enhancing mangrove restoration spatial planning. By integrating opportunity costs and restoration benefits, our framework helps reconcile competing land uses and supports the achievement of the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration and the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.

Mangrove restoration, spatial planning, cost-effective, restoration scenario, restoration prioritization