The complex human–water–climate feedbacks with uncertainties pose substantial obstacles to comprehensively predicting, clarifying system interactions, and proposing practical strategies. Here, we develop an integrated socio-ecohydrological systems approach for the severely water-stressed Yellow River Basin, projecting scenarios through 2100. Furthermore, we model transformative actions to identify robust pathways that can alleviate water stress and enhance long-term sustainability. Our findings reveal that severe water stress is not expected to be relieved before 2045 under our scenario analysis. Even under the most sustainable scenario, human water demand could exceed the severe water stress threshold by 22% (ranging from 6% to 40%) in 2100. Cross-system transformations, including enhanced water efficiency and sustainable agricultural practices, remain essential to reducing water stress in the basin.
 

Human-water system; Yellow River Basin; Sustainability