210 / 2025-06-14 13:16:53

MBSE-based Simulation Method for Design Margin

Reliability, MBSE,belief reliability,magic grid, ​Monte Carlo

In response to the challenge of missing early reliability assessment in complex system design and iteration, this study proposes a model-based system engineering framework aimed at achieving quantitative analysis of belief reliability in the early stages of design.Based on the Magic Grid methodology, this method constructs a multi-dimensional evaluation model: first, the “design margin” is established as the top-level requirement of the system, and key performance parameters are extracted through use case analysis and system context definition; second, a parameter relationship network diagram is constructed based on the interface parameter transmission mechanism, and a comprehensive calculation model is formed by integrating discipline equations and parameter constraints; finally, Monte Carlo simulation technology is used to verify the influence boundaries of parameter fluctuations and model uncertainty on the margin.In the empirical study of servo systems, this method successfully realized the visual modeling of parameter uncertainty transmission paths and accurately evaluated the confidence interval of the design margin through probability simulation. The case results show that the constructed model can effectively capture the correlation characteristics of system parameters and provide a quantitative basis for early reliability verification.