107 / 2024-04-20 12:04:02
Distributionally Robust Multi-stage Decision Problem and Satisficing
Multi-stage desicion making,Robust optimization,Robust satisficing,Dynamic programming
摘要待审
LongZhuoyu / The Chinese University of Hong Kong
XieChi / Beijing Institute of Technology
ZhangRunhao / Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

We study the classical multi-stage stochastic decision problem, wherein the exact distribution of uncertainty remains unknown. To measure the distributional uncertainty over the entire planning horizon, an ambiguity set defined by a probability distance metric is adopted and the problem is modeled within the conventional framework of distributionally robust optimization. We use Kullback-Leibler divergence as the underlying probability distance metric and demonstrate that solving such a problem is computationally demanding. Then, we introduce the robust satisficing framework which employs a target-driven approach to encompass all possible probability distributions. Under this framework, we show that the multi-stage stochastic decision problem can be reformulated into a series of dynamic programming problems, and the optimal policy can be determined through a Bellman-type backward induction. Additionally, we extend the analysis from KL-divergence to the general utility-based probability distance and yield analogous theoretical results. Later, we apply our approach to two different operation management problems: joint inventory-pricing problem and capacity expansion problem. In these two applications, we illustrate the optimality of base-stock policy under the robust satisficing framework. Finally, through our numerical results, we show the promising performance of our approach in effectively addressing uncertain scenarios and achieving predefined target.

重要日期
  • 会议日期

    06月28日

    2024

    07月01日

    2024

  • 07月01日 2024

    注册截止日期

主办单位
中国科学技术大学
协办单位
管理科学与工程学会
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