452 / 2024-03-20 15:08:05

Inconsistent diagnosis and frequency analysis of runoff in typical stations in the upper Yangtze River basin

Yangtze river basin; runoff; inconsistency; frequency analysis

Subtheme 5: Climate Change: Adaptation, Mitigation and Resilience > Topic 1: Hydrology and Water Resources response to climate change

Abstract: The study of hydrological data consistency is of great scientific significance and engineering application value. Based on the long-series annual runoff data of the main control stations in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the variation characteristics of annual runoff at each station are analyzed, and the P-III frequency distribution model based on time-varying moments is adopted, based on the analysis of the characteristics of the design value of annual flow at different stations, the results show that the design value of Shigu Station and Panzhihua station increases by about 0.4-0.6% in 2020 when the design value is not consistent with the design value once every 10 years, the design values of other stations in 2020 decreased by about 3.2-8.4% , with the maximum reduction at the high field and the least at the Yichang Station. Compared with the conventional frequency model, the time-varying moment model is more suitable for the frequency analysis when the hydrological data can not satisfy the consistency condition, the research results can also provide technical support for the revision of regional design runoff and the optimal operation of regional reservoirs and diversion projects.