389 / 2024-03-08 17:51:25

Prediction of Climate Change and Water Resources Evolution Trend around Dongting Lake Basins in Hunan Province Based on CMIP6 Models

CMIP6 models, Climate Change , Water Resources , Evolution Trend, Dongting Lake Basins

Subtheme 5: Climate Change: Adaptation, Mitigation and Resilience > Topic 1: Hydrology and Water Resources response to climate change

      In order to improve the adaptability of the river basins and the ability of flood and drought disaster prevention and control under the changing environment, this paper took Xiangjiang River Basin, Zishui River Basin, Yuanjiang River Basin, Lishui River Basin and Dongting Lake Basin (referred to as Dongting Lake Basins) of Hunan Province as the research object to analyze and predict climate change and water resources evolution trend.

Based on the monthly precipitation and average temperature data of thirty-six meteorological stations in Hunan Province, three climate models published by CMIP6 were used to simulate and estimate the change process of meteorological elements around Dongting Lake Basins.

Three model integration methods including arithmetic mean, weighted mean and multiple regression were used to improve the simulation ability. The standard Taylor diagram was constructed to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of every model and integrated method, and then the optimal method was selected to predict the possible evolution trend of future climate change trend around Dongting Lake Basins under SSP2-4.5 scenario. The empirical equation model was established whose input factors were precipitation and temperature to predict the evolution trend of water resources around Dongting Lake Basins.

The results indicated that the precipitation and water resources around Dongting Lake Basins may change from insignificant increase to significant increase in 2060 ~ 2070, temperature was likely to rise significantly after 2050 on the time scale. Spatially, precipitation may gradually increase from northwest to southeast and become stronger, while temperature may gradually increase from north to south and from west to east. As a whole, water resources may present a feature of "more in the borders and less in the center ", and the high-value area of water resources gradually extends from the borders to the central areas gradually.