345 / 2024-02-29 17:54:26

Population at risk estimation and emergency evacuation for dam-break based on POI and map route data

population at risk,point of interest,dam-break,emergency evacuation,kernel density analysis

Accurately estimating the population at risk (PAR) is a crucial content of assessing the dam-break life loss, also a basis for making emergency evacuation planning. Aiming at inaccuracy estimation of PAR using the city average population density approach, this study structured a population spatialization model by kernel density analysis and multi-source regression analysis, based on the point of interest (POI) and map route data. Then flood evolution and inundation range of dam-break were calculate by numerical simulation, which were overlaid with population spatialization results to obtain the distribution of PAR. Finally, combined with the map route data, the optimal evacuation paths and minimum evacuation time from high level risk areas to settlements were given. This method was applied in Wudongde dam-break rehearsal, and the result revealed that it can indicate the uneven distribution of PAR and estimate it at the township, as the most basic level of government, compared conventional methods. Thus, the corresponding emergency evacuation plans are more targeted.