205 / 2024-02-27 18:31:11

Suitability of ecological flow thresholds based on the coordinated development of water-socio-economy-eco-environment

water systems,water-socio-economy-eco-environment system,ecological flow,suitability,system dynamics

Given the significant water conflicts across different sectors and the clear “nature-society” dualistic water cycle structure in specific river basins, it is crucial to comprehensively reveal the co-evolution mechanism of the interconnected water-society-economy-ecology-environment system. Scientifically adjusting the ecological flow thresholds to promote the coordinated development of this system is a top priority in current water resources allocation and management research, an is critical for ensuring the ecological flow of rivers. This study constructed a coupled water-society-economy-ecology-environment model based on water system theory and system dynamics methods. Using scenario simulation method, considering regulatory measures such as efficient water conservation, increased reclaimed water utilization, and the uncertainty of future natural water supply, we simulate the water supply and demand dynamics in the Tianmen-Hanbei River basin from 2022 to 2035 under high, medium, and low ecological flow thresholds. The results showed that:(1) The ecological flow thresholds for the study area should be set at 30% to 50% for wet years and 10% to 30% for average years. (2) For dry years, the recommended ecological flow thresholds are set at 10% to 30% for the study area. (3) Efficient water conservation and increased reclaimed water utilization can help alleviate conflicts among regional water users resulting from higher ecological flow thresholds. It is effective to implement regulatory measures to improve water resource utilization alongside increasing ecological flow thresholds. This paper investigates the suitability of ecological flow thresholds at a systemic level, providing a theoretical basis for optimizing and scientifically managing complex water resource systems.