As a rigid passenger flow, centripetal commuter flow is the most important passenger flow in metropolitan area. The research explores the influence factors of the proportion of commuters to central city in metropolitan area (PCC) by taking the Osaka metropolitan area and the Tokyo metropolitan area as study objects. Firstly, the scope of metropolitan area is defined according to each city’s proportion of local commuters to the central city. Then, among many potential influencing factors, comprehensive travel time (CTT) and balance between the number of posts and local commuters (BPC) are identified, which mainly influence PCC and both of them show negative relationship with PCC. Based on the analysis, a model has been built to quantify this influence mechanism by least squares regression. Finally, the abnormal points are analyzed and explained combined with the results of the model. The conclusions drawn from the research may help provide some references for improving accuracy of demand forecasting in metropolitan area.

centripetal commuter flow;metropolitan area;comprehensive travel time;job-housing balance;least squares regression