With the improvement of the national economic level, more and more large-scale activities are held in major cities, which causes great pressure on the surrounding road operation, and the study and judgment of its situation has become the focus of relevant departments. Therefore, this paper studies the average speed of surrounding roads under the background of short-term large-scale activities, and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the impact of activities on surrounding roads by using the data of floating cars and coil detectors. The analysis shows that: the average speed of the affected road around the venue begins to decline and the traffic volume of the section increases significantly 2 hours before the activity; the average speed of the road decreases and the traffic volume increases within 1 hour after the activity. The input parameters are road, date attribute, time period, month, traffic restriction, week, weather, start time, number of activity reports and so on. The prediction results show that the average 15 minute speed prediction accuracy of East 2 Ring Road, new East Road, North Workers Stadium Road and East Workers Stadium Road is 94.09%, 88.90%, 78.11% and 84.64% respectively. The prediction results can provide corresponding support for the study and judgment of surrounding road network operation situation during large-scale activities.

CICTP