At-grade intersections are important parts of the road network. There are also traffic accidents frequently happened, as well as high risk of traffic safety. Therefore, it’s necessary to analyze and study the traffic safety risks generated at the at-grade intersections, to reduce the traffic accidents and their losses, and to improve the traffic safety management level of at-grade intersections, In this paper, the signalized at-grade intersection had been taken as the studying object, the research idea of traffic safety risk assessment of signalized at-grade intersection based on traffic conflict analysis had been proposed. Based on the analysis of traffic conflicts between motor vehicles, non-motor vehicles and pedestrians, five types of traffic safety risks of the signalized at-grade intersections have been classified. With the number traffic conflicts and the severity of traffic conflicts as the model parameters, the traffic safety risk assessment model for the signalized at-grade intersection had been established. By combining subjective method with objective analysis, the weight of different types of traffic safety risks had been assigned. With the combination of gray theory and Markov theory, the traffic safety risk prediction model for signalized at-grade intersection had been established and verified, to predict the degree of traffic safety risk and its corresponding level in the specific time period, in order to help the analysis and determination of the traffic safety risk control measures. The traffic safety risk assessment method had been applied to assess and analyze the traffic safety risk of a sampled intersection. Based on the assessment and prediction results, the traffic safety risk control measures of signalized at-grade intersection had been analyzed and then determined.

CICTP