17 / 2021-07-07 15:22:56

Reconciling human and natural drivers of the tripole pattern of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia

Human Impacts,Climate Modeling,Multidecadal variations,Non-uniform warming

The recent summer surface air temperature (SAT) changes over densely populated Eurasia exhibit a non-uniform pattern with amplified warming over Europe and East Asia but weak warming over Central Asia, forming a wave train-like structure. However, the key factors that determine this non-uniform warming pattern remain unclear. By analyzing observations and model simulations, here we show that more than half of the SAT multidecadal variations from 1950-2014 over Europe-west Asia and East Asia may have resulted from external forcing, rather than from internal variability in the Atlantic as previously thought. In contrast, the recent SAT over Central Asia is influenced mainly by internal variations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the forced SAT multidecadal variations over Eurasia are mainly caused by changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Our findings provide strong evidence for major impacts of external forcing on multidecadal climate variations over Eurasia.