定量检测归因结果表明,造成上述变化的最主要原因为温室气体排放,其强迫效应,不仅能够在全球-半球尺度上,也可以在中国区域,甚至在中国东部城市地区被显著检测到。本文进一步发展了传统的检测归因框架,研发了多步检测归因方法(stepwise detection and attribution)在引入局地强迫(如城市化)的同时避免了“多重共线性”的干扰。基于这一方法,温室气体、气溶胶、城市化等不同尺度的强迫得以直接比较,量化出城市化在城市地区复合型极端高温的时-空变化中的贡献大概为30%。
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