Electric heat tracing is often used, thermal equilibrium is the key problem. in this paper, the circular tube is the research object, the influence of convective heat transfer was studied by FLUENT and experiment, the wind speed within 0~40m/s and the temperature within -40~0℃. The results show that the convective heat transfer increases with the increase of wind speed and the decrease of temperature; When the temperature is below -30℃, the effect of temperature is increased; When the wind speed is greater than 25m/s and the temperature is lower than -20℃, the effect of temperature is increased; Based on the simulation data, the prediction model of is established, and the rationality of the prediction model is verified by test.