Impact of Increasing Model Resolution during the HWRF Hybrid EnVar Data Assimilation on the Analysis and Prediction of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
编号:226 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2021-06-11 23:51:49 浏览:703次 口头报告

报告开始:2021年07月10日 16:30(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S11B] 11B、大气科学 [S11B-1] 11B、专题2-数值模式与资料同化

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摘要

Although numerous studies have demonstrated that increasing model spatial resolution in free forecasts can

potentially improve tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts, studies on the impact of model resolution during data assimilation

(DA) on TC prediction are lacking. In this study, using the ensemble-variational DA system for the Hurricane

Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model, we investigated the individual impact of increasing the model resolution

of first guess (FG) and background ensemble (BE) forecasts during DA on initial analyses and subsequent forecasts

of Hurricane Patricia (2015). The impacts were compared between horizontal and vertical resolutions and also between the

tropical storm (TS) and hurricane assimilation during Patricia. The results show that increasing the horizontal or vertical

resolution in FG has a larger impact than increasing the resolution in BE on improving the analyzed TC intensity and

structure for the hurricane stage. The result is reversed for the TS stage. These results are attributed to the effectiveness of

increasing the FG resolution in intensifying the background vortex for the hurricane stage relative to the TS stage.

Increasing the BE resolution contributes to improving the analyzed intensity through the better-resolved background

correlation structure for both the hurricane and TS stages. Increasing horizontal resolution has an overall larger effect than

increasing vertical resolution in improving the analysis at the hurricane stage and their effects are close for the analysis at the

TS stage. Additionally, the more accurately analyzed primary circulation, secondary circulation, and warm-core structures

via the increased resolution in DA lead to improved TC intensity forecasts.

关键词
台风;资料同化
报告人
冯杰
研究员 复旦大学大气与海洋科学系

稿件作者
杰冯 复旦大学大气与海洋科学系
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    07月09日

    2021

    07月11日

    2021

  • 05月30日 2021

    摘要截稿日期

  • 05月30日 2021

    初稿截稿日期

  • 05月30日 2021

    提前注册日期

  • 07月10日 2021

    注册截止日期

  • 07月11日 2021

    报告提交截止日期

主办单位
青年地学论坛理事会
承办单位
中国科学院地球化学研究所
贵州大学
历届会议
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