458 / 2019-02-28 02:18:50

Quantitative Space Development Choice Strategies： A Case Study of the PECAS Wuhan Demonstration Model

Microsimulation; Accessibility; PECAS Wuhan, Space Development Choice Model

全体主题 > Land-use & Transportation modeling

The China spatial multi plan integration reform driving by the economic trends tend towards L-shaped growth. To stipulate the scarcity sequence and regulate economic order , the needs raised for the infinite dimensional quantitative tool portfolio of the travel utilities and space economy accessibility interaction model. PECAS (stands for Production, Exchange and Consumption Allocation System), is generalized approach for simulating spatial economic systems adopted officially worldwide in decades. The PECAS Wuhan demonstration model constructed in year 2007 which specified the Wuhan metropolitan area into 147 land use zones and forecasted the urban activity evolution trend relatively in the duration from year 2008 to year 2038. This paper calibrated its space development choice model with the newly trusted data collected at the land parcel level，the competitive and sustainable development paradigm for the urban spatial policy makers to guide the money invest rational into the entire new development, demolition, re-development and vacant land projects match with the space amounts via the optimization calculation. Further research is discussed in the end that the how the game theory possibility function in the unperfect market besides the price lavage assumption which the PECAS applied.