91 / 2019-10-08 19:02:57

Impact of population ageing on global deaths, 1990-2017

population ageing; number of deaths; mortality; attribution

B. 公共卫生相关主题 > Track - B 默认专题

Background As life expectancy increases, population ageing accelerates as a global public health challenge. Disaggregation of the impact of ageing on death is a research priority.
Methods Using data from Global Burden of Disease 2017, we attributed changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories plus country groupings by economic development level. The relative contribution of population ageing was calculated as “change in total deaths attributed to population ageing from 1990 to the given year / total deaths in 1990 × 100%”. For countries experiencing increased deaths due to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change over those attributed to population ageing.
Findings Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were attributed to population ageing, with an attributed proportion of 27·9%. The impact of population ageing on deaths varied across economic development levels, geographic regions and causes of death. The two largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths between 1990 and 2017 occurred for ischemic heart disease (321 million) and stroke (219 million). Attributed deaths from population ageing increased (decreased) in 152 (43) countries for males and 159 (36) countries for females between 1990 and 2017. Mortality change decreased the number of deaths from 1990 to 2017 more substantially than population ageing increased it for the whole world, as well as in 50% of countries where population ageing was associated with increased death burden.
Interpretation The number of global deaths attributed to population ageing increased from 1990 to 2017, but the magnitude of attribution varied widely across income levels, countries and causes of death. Low-cost and effective preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented to respond to challenges arising from population ageing.