摘要详情

ID / 提交时间

122 / 2019-11-04 17:35:41

标题

The transmissibility of shigellosis from 2005 to 2017 in Wuhan City, China: a modelling study

关键字

Shigellosis,Meteorological factors,Transmissibility,Effective reproduction number,Mathematical model

主题及专题

B. 公共卫生相关主题 > Track - B 默认专题

状态

摘要录用

作者

Zeyu Zhao / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, People’s Republic of China

Qi Chen / Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan City, Hubei Province, People’s Republic of China

Bin Zhao / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, Laboratory Department, Xiang’an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, People’s Republic of China

Qingqing Hu / Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, 201 Presidents Circle, Salt Lake City 84112, Utah, USA

Jia Rui / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Fujian, People’s Republic of China

Yao Wang / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Fujian, People’s Republic of China

Yanhua Su / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Fujian, People’s Republic of China

Benhua Zhao / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Fujian, People’s Republic of China

Tianmu Chen / State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Fujian, People’s Republic of China

摘要

Objectives: This article aims to estimate and forecast the transmissibility of shigellosis and explore the association of meteorological factors with bacillary dysentery.
Methods: A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered–Water/Food (SEIARW) model was adopted to explore the dataset of reported shigellosis cases built in Wuhan City from 2005 to 2017. Effective reproduction number (Reff) was employed to quantify the transmissibility of the disease. Monthly meteorological data from 2008 to 2017 are used to confirm the correlation with reported new cases and Reff.
Results: SEIARW model had a well goodness of fit with the data of shigellosis (χ2 = 0.00046, p > 0.999). The results of the simulation showed that the transmission route of reservoir-to-person has almost been interrupted in the city. The Reff would be reduced to an epidemic threshold of 1.00 (95%CI: 0.82 – 1.19) in the year of 2035. When shortened the infectious period to 11.25 days in 2017, the value of Reff would decrease to 0.99. The New case and Reff of shigellosis could be significant affected by average temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours in some years.
Conclusions: The main transmission pattern of shigellosis is person-to-person in Wuhan City, China. The transmission of the disease would be interrupted in the year 2035. Meteorological factors expecially average temperature may influence the epidemic of shigellosis.