Since there exist various uncertainties in integrated energy systems, it is necessary to study the probabilistic energy flow of the integrated energy system. However, the existing probabilistic energy flow calculation methods have the problem of low computational efficiency and are difficult to add correlation between variables. This paper presents a calculation method to solve these probabilistic energy flow problems. First, this paper models the integrated energy system which is interconnected with natural gas and electricity system, and takes the uncertainty of wind farm and photovoltaic power plants in power system into account by carrying out Monte Carlo simulation and two points estimation. Second, this paper adds correlation between wind farm and photovoltaic power plants samples by Nataf transformation. Finally, time-domain simulations are performed, and the results show the accuracy of the proposed method.

Integrated Energy System, Monte Carlo Simulation, Point Estimation, Nataf Transformation