625 / 2019-04-03 10:12:02

Medium and Long-term Coordinated Operation Scheme for Wind and Hydro Power Considering the Accumulation of Weather Forecast Uncertainty

Coordination of wind and hydro power, weather forecast, accumulation of uncertainty, chance-constraint, multi objects

Hydro power can effectively smooth the wind power’s fluctuation due to its flexible-adjustment ability. Using the complementary between the wind and the hydro energy is beneficial to promote wind power consumption as well as to improve optimal-allocation of clean energy resources. This paper presents a medium to long-term coordinated operation scheme for wind and hydro power with considering accumulation of weather forecast uncertainty to make better the issues of the limitations in current related researches such as short dispatching period or neglecting the benefit for hydro power industries. Weather forecasting supports significantly in wind and hydro power dispatching as a key role. As the character that the uncertainty of weather forecast actually increases with the forecast period, we build a model which considering the accumulation of weather forecast uncertainties by defining an evolution variables in. Multi objects representing smoothness of joint power, abandoned water, and frim power of hydro power are thought over so as to guarantee the benefit of hydro power itself during the coordination, then the model of medium and long-term coordinated operation for wind and hydro power is constructed while introducing the chance-constraint of hydro-power reservoir capacity. Moment generating function (MGF) is used to obtain the approximate random variable of accumulative runoff and the chance-constraint is converted into its deterministic equivalent form for model solving. The validity of proposed scheme is verified through the example where the genetic algorithm is adopted, then the influence of chance-constraint confidence as well as variation of evolution variables and forecast period of runoff forecast on the coordination performance is analyzed and verified.